#美国CPI数据即将公布 I. Core CPI Conclusion for the U.S. (December Data, Released at 21:30)

- Market Consensus: Both overall and core CPI MoM are expected to rise by +0.3%, and YoY by +2.7%.

- Key Variables: Lagged impact of tariffs and compensatory rebound due to government shutdown may lead to an upside risk of MoM reaching **0.4%**.

- Policy Transmission: Higher than expected → Fed rate cuts slow down, USD strengthens, liquidity tightens marginally; Lower than expected → increased expectation for rate cuts, USD weakens, liquidity eases marginally.

II. Impact of CPI on BTC and ETH (Scenario-based)

- CPI < Expectation (e.g., MoM < 0.3%, YoY < 2.7%): Bullish. Strengthened expectation for rate cuts, capital flows into risk assets; BTC targets 92,000–93,500, ETH aims for 3,170–3,240.

- CPI in Line with Expectation: Range-bound. Market remains cautious, BTC consolidates between 90,000–92,000, ETH between 3,060–3,140.

- CPI > Expectation (e.g., MoM ≥ 0.4%, YoY ≥ 2.8%): Bearish. Tightening liquidity, BTC faces support at 90,000, ETH may drop to 2,960–2,880.

III. Today's Liquidity Strategy and Specific Outcomes

- Core Logic: Observe and gradually hedge before CPI release; quickly shift direction after data release; use light leverage, control position size, strict stop-loss.

- BTC Strategy:

- Before Data: Build base position in batches between 90,500–91,200 (≤30%), lightly short at 92,000–92,500 (≤20%), stop-loss at 1.5% each.

- CPI < Expectation: Add to position upon breaking 92,500 to reach 50%, target 93,500, stop-loss if below 91,800.

- CPI > Expectation: Reduce to 10% if below 90,000, target 89,000, stop-loss if above 90,800.

- ETH Strategy:

- Before Data: Build base position at 3,060–3,080 (≤30%), lightly short at 3,130–3,150 (≤20%), stop-loss at 2% each.

- CPI < Expectation: Add to position upon breaking 3,170 to reach 50%, target 3,240, stop-loss if below 3,120.

- CPI > Expectation: Reduce to 10% if below 3,030, target 2,960, stop-loss if above 3,060.

- Liquidity Notes: Prioritize spot trading, contract leverage ≤3x; have stablecoins ready, complete position adjustments within 15 minutes after data release to avoid extreme volatility.

IV. Final Execution Result (Based on Current Market at 10:45)

- Position: BTC base position 30% (average cost ~91,200), ETH base position 30% (average cost ~3,100), remaining 70% of capital held as stablecoins, ready for action.

- Trigger Conditions: After CPI release, adjust positions in real time based on the above price thresholds and position rules; remain on hold and strictly control risk exposure if no triggers are met.