The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is a key indicator for measuring a country's economic activity. However, it is a lagging indicator, and therefore difficult to use for investment forecasting.
For this reason, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta conducts a real-time estimate, GDPnow, which is regularly updated as new data becomes available. The calculation methodology is similar to the official statistics, but with real-time updates. It is therefore a current economic activity estimator, very useful for making investment decisions.
If we look at the historical data from the last two years, we will see that although there are many cases of deviation, it is a very reliable indicator of the economic cycle trend.
At this moment, as of January 14, the GDPnow estimate is at 5.3%, reflecting an acceleration of the US economic cycle, along with its consequent inflationary pressures.
In addition, these figures coincide with those provided by Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce of the US, in a recent interview.