The global crypto market continues to rise amid positive macro sentiment and approaching key regulatory milestones.
🌍 Global Political and Economic Updates
Here are key events that may impact the crypto market:
· U.S. Regulatory Process
· Key Event: The Senate Crypto Market Structure Bill has entered a critical phase, with some amendments voted on January 15.
· Market Impact: The bill aims to provide a clear framework for the market, boosting investor expectations for regulatory clarity. However, Coinbase CEO opposes the current version of the bill draft.
· Monetary Policy and Macroeconomics
· Key Events: Federal Reserve Board members reiterate the possibility of cutting rates by 150 basis points within the year; latest inflation data slightly below expectations.
· Market Impact: Rising expectations for interest rate cuts increase liquidity in financial markets, favoring risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
· Institutional Dynamics and Regulatory Events
· Key Events: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concludes its multi-year investigation into the Zcash Foundation and explicitly states that no enforcement action will be taken.
· Market Impact: This decision is seen as a positive signal indicating a clearer regulatory stance towards specific cryptocurrency assets.
· Global Markets and Geopolitics
· Key Events: US tech stocks decline, spot gold prices hit a record high; Trump hints at postponing military action against Iran.
· Market Impact: Volatility in traditional markets and geopolitical risks may drive some funds to seek alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies.
📈 Market Trend Analysis
· $BTC
· 24-Hour Performance: Upward, breaking through key resistance levels
· Key Dynamics: Leading the market upward, triggering large-scale short liquidations
· $ETH
· 24-Hour Performance: Significant increase
· Key Dynamics: Fidelity submits an amendment for Ethereum spot ETF, increasing market expectations for approval
· Overall Market Performance
· Total Market Capitalization: Approximately $3.29 trillion
· Market Sentiment: Generally bullish, but caution is needed for short-term volatility
· Key Features: Bitcoin and Ethereum's dominance has strengthened; altcoins generally follow an upward trend; trading volume in the derivatives market has surged.
💡 Core Market Drivers
1. Improvement in Macro Environment: Mild US inflation data and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are the fundamental macro drivers behind the current rally.
2. Regulatory Expectations Boost: The key cryptocurrency bill in the United States has entered the review and voting stage, enhancing market optimism regarding clearer regulatory direction.
3. Technical Buying and Short Squeeze: After Bitcoin's price successfully broke through the months-long consolidation range (such as $92,000-$94,000), it triggered a massive forced liquidation of short positions, forming a 'short squeeze' that further amplified the gains.
4. Institutional Capital Inflow: The resurgence of net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and continuous accumulation of Bitcoin by listed companies (such as Metaplanet) indicate the resilience of institutional demand.
🔭 Market Outlook
Market attention has focused on the $96,000 to $97,000 range. If it can maintain stability above this range, it could pave the way for Bitcoin to test the significant psychological level of $100,000.
However, in the short term, the market may experience corrections due to voting results that do not meet expectations or profit-taking. Additionally, the progress of Ethereum spot ETF approval and the follow-up developments of the cryptocurrency bill review meeting on January 27 may become new variables affecting the next phase of trends.
