Has XMR hit its peak? Here's my take.

Let's talk about XMR first. Yesterday, it continued its explosive rally, surging to 800 before starting to correct. The short squeeze loss reached a record 3.9 million USD, more than double the 1.88 million USD seen during the black swan event on October 10th last year.

From a technical standpoint, the MACD indicator has been consistently rising without flattening, indicating the bullish trend is still intact. However, the RSI has soared to 95, firmly in the extreme overbought zone. Additionally, the daily chart formed a long upper shadow shooting star with high volume, signaling clear short-term correction needs.

XMR has now retraced about 10%, which is a strong pullback rather than a weak one. Whether it can break above the 800 resistance level this week remains to be seen—don't jump to conclusions yet.

Looking at exchange funding rates, OK has no XMR futures contracts. GATE's funding rate is negative, while Binance's rate has remained positive since rebounding from the bottom, even when the price hit 800—never turning negative. This is critical: it directly indicates that the majority of XMR holdings are concentrated in Binance, where large players continue to squeeze short positions. As long as Binance's funding rate stays positive, the supply won't loosen.

My personal stance is clear: shorting XMR in the near term must be extremely cautious. Risk tolerance varies widely among individuals—I strongly advise against blindly following the short side.

Now, regarding ZEC, it continued its rebound yesterday, thankfully avoiding the 50% surge seen in DASH within a single day. The current movement is a normal rebound pattern. My target for the rebound remains the 460–470 range.

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