【0116 Daily Report】Regulatory Black Swan Strikes Suddenly, Privacy Sector Crashes!
Personal Trading Plan
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
The long-anticipated regulatory 'bat' has finally fallen! Dubai's DFSA has drawn a 'red line,' completely banning privacy coins (XMR, ZEC, etc.) and mixers. This heavy blow directly undermines the logic of the privacy sector, triggering panic selling! The Fear & Greed Index stands at 50, market sentiment instantly shifts from hot to cold, and risk-averse sentiment rises!
Combining previous analysis, although macro factors include Japan's $550 billion investment pledge and solid U.S. employment data, the shadow of regulation has significantly reduced risk appetite. While BlackRock and ETF funds continue net inflows, on-chain capital has begun withdrawing from gray areas and accelerating toward compliant assets. This once again confirms: the crypto market is a capital overflow market with extremely high sensitivity to funds!
Currently, Bitcoin is facing strong resistance above $95,600 due to regulatory bans, shifting from offense to defense. It's like an elderly person, each step is difficult—the higher it climbs, the greater the pressure! Both the 15-minute and 4-hour charts show increasing bearish momentum. This old man is also very cunning—the main players are using negative news to test lower liquidity.
Therefore, my personal trading plan is: Avoid going against the trend and short-term longs! Be cautious of deep spikes! With the regulatory 'red line' now clear, the market's short-term logic has switched to 'risk-off mode.' A downward pullback is expected during the day, and the main players may take advantage to dump and test support around $94,000–$94,500. In such times, never try to catch a falling knife!
Ethereum, dragged down by DeFi compliance concerns, is weakening in tandem with Bitcoin, barely holding above $3,300. Resistance at $3,350 remains unbreakable. If Bitcoin retraces, ETH is likely to retest $3,250 or even lower—short-term momentum rebound logic has failed!
Key Focus for Today:
Privacy sector collapse! Dubai's ban directly invalidates the 'safe haven' narrative—avoid catching falling knives and beware of cascading sell-offs!
Embrace compliance! Capital may flow out of the privacy sector and shift toward fully compliant assets (e.g., BTC, compliant L2s, and LIT, etc.).