Family, who understands! This surge of $ZEC is simply a textbook-level 'fishing law enforcement,' soaring from a low point to the 448 mark. How many retail investors look at the K-line and feel so envious that they want to go all in? Hold on! Take my advice, this is not a meat-eating market; it’s a pit dug for the greedy by the main force. Getting in now is purely becoming a 'preparatory reserve for the bag holders.'
As an old hand in the market for five years, I dare to say: the current upward momentum of $ZEC has already bottomed out, and the downward trend cannot be hidden. Let's first look at the 1-hour cycle chart; the core signal has already turned red— the fast and slow lines of the MACD indicator are sticking together at a high position, and the green bars are subtly about to emerge, a typical precursor to a dead cross, indicating that the short-term upward trend is about to reverse, and the willingness of funds to go long has significantly decreased. Now looking at the RSI indicator, it has been dropping from a high position and hasn’t even stabilized in the overbought zone before turning down, indicating that the follow-up buying pressure has already dissipated, and market enthusiasm is quickly retreating.
More lethal than technical indicators are the on-chain funding signals. I specifically checked the major data platforms for the distribution of large holders, and **the long-short account ratio is plummeting dramatically**, dropping from over 1.3 directly to below 0.7, which is not the result of retail investors' actions. It's important to know that the long-short account ratio is a core on-chain indicator for judging the direction of main players. When the ratio for large accounts falls below 0.8, it can generally be confirmed that the main players are quietly exiting their long positions, leaving retail investors standing guard at high levels. More critically, the total open positions are still shrinking synchronously, which confirms: the current rise is merely an illusion created by the main players to sell high; the selling pressure above is heavy enough to crush any subsequent upward momentum.
Newcomers might ask: What if we surge to a new high again? I can only say that the probability of that is lower than winning the lottery. The crypto market has always been dictated by capital; with the main players starting to retreat, who will be the unfortunate one to carry the burden? Those who are still thinking about chasing the highs are essentially blinded by the short-term gains, forgetting the cruelty of the market — the main players love to harvest the lucky mindset of 'what if it goes up?'
My personal trading strategy is very clear: set up short positions directly at the current price, with stop-loss above the 455 level, targeting the 430 support level first. If that breaks, we can look to 415. Of course, it's essential to manage position sizes; there are no absolute trends in the crypto market, and only by respecting risk can one survive in the long run.
To be frank, in this market, those who make big money are always those who can resist temptation and understand the strategies of the main players, rather than the 'chives' who follow trends and chase highs and lows. I monitor the market daily to analyze the signals of core currencies and share the most practical trading logic with everyone. Follow me, and the next time the main players play the 'trap for buying' trick, you'll be able to avoid the pitfalls accurately and even take advantage of the situation. If you find this analysis useful, please like and share it @加密崎哥 #加密市场观察 $BTC
