26.1.16 Market Trend Analysis
The market is once again at a crossroads. Many are still fixated on the false breakout in April 2022 that surged to 48,000, which seems somewhat like trying to find a sword in a boat. That said, there have not been any clear signs of weakening lately; however, the FOMO sentiment in the market is noticeably lacking—most altcoins have not made significant upward moves, with only the privacy sector performing beyond expectations.
The 100,000 mark will undoubtedly be the biggest battleground. If we truly replicate the 30% increase from 2022, reaching around 100,000, there won't be much point in holding out. Interestingly, whales in the circle are betting that BTC will hit 100,000 by the end of the month, and this morning, a whale dumped 10 million USD in premiums to acquire a large amount of call options. The fluctuations in the coming month are likely to be significant—first bouncing to 100,000, then crashing back to 90,000, and afterward slowly oscillating upward; this scenario is not impossible.
At this stage of operation, the most important thing to clarify is the take-profit and stop-loss lines; otherwise, if one is not careful, they might experience the sensation of sliding from the top of the mountain to the foot. From BTC's perspective, it is highly probable that it will oscillate around 95,000 before continuing to rise. After breaking through, the defense position for long positions must also shift upward, and the 94,000 mark is crucial. Unless it really falls below 94,000 and cannot recover, this wave of upward momentum can be considered completely over—this pessimistic scenario cannot be ignored.
In operations, one must leave room for maneuvering; a strategy that allows for both offensive and defensive actions is the safest approach, and position size must be controlled well—don't just go all-in in one direction. As for key price levels, the resistance is seen at 98,000, while the support range is between 94,000 and 95,000.
