Trump imposed tariffs on 8 countries, protests in Iran continue, and the global geopolitical risk index has risen to its highest level since the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. In this environment, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is hitting historical highs.
In 2025, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold repeatedly exceeded 0.6, something that had almost never happened before 2020. Traditionally, BTC has been classified as a "risk asset"—rising and falling in tandem with the Nasdaq. However, its behavior pattern is changing over the past two years.
There are several reasons.
First, the institutional funds brought by ETFs—these funds are allocated based on the logic of "portfolio diversification," rather than "chasing gains and cutting losses." Second, the global trend of de-dollarization—when the U.S. uses tariffs and sanctions as weapons, other countries begin to seek alternative means of value storage. Third, the maturation of Crypto itself—volatility is decreasing, and liquidity is improving.
But we have not yet reached the conclusion that "Bitcoin is digital gold." In a true market panic (such as the yen arbitrage collapse in August 2024), BTC will still be indiscriminately sold off. It currently resembles a "weak safe-haven asset"—performing well amid moderate geopolitical risks, but may not withstand a systemic collapse.
The current Greenland tariffs and Iranian crisis fall under "medium intensity" risk. Market uncertainty is rising, but it hasn't reached the level of panic selling. This is precisely BTC's comfort zone—enough uncertainty drives safe-haven demand, but not enough to trigger a liquidity crisis...
