WHY BITCOIN IS A MACRO BET – NOT A TRADE ORDER
Bitcoin does not rise because of technical patterns, halving, or news headlines. The core driver lies in the liquidity mechanism.
In the next 12 months, approximately $4.7 trillion is forecasted to flow into the U.S. financial system through various channels:
~$1.2 trillion in tax refunds returning to consumer accounts
~$2.1 trillion in corporate cash repatriation
~$1.4 trillion 'unlocked' from depreciation incentives
This scale is equivalent to ~20% of U.S. GDP. History shows that when excess liquidity appears, the flow of money follows a familiar sequence: stock buybacks, dividends, M&A, increased capital spending. Asset prices tend to rise before economic data improves; retail reacts last.
As risk appetite expands, capital moves out of traditional assets in search of asymmetry. At that stage, Bitcoin benefits as it responds to monetary easing, currency dilution, and excess liquidity – not a growth story.
This phase may increase prices initially, but the long-term cost is erosion of purchasing power if asset prices far outpace income. Therefore, Bitcoin here is a macro allocation according to the liquidity cycle, not a short-term trade. In the long term, do you have faith in $BTC or not