Since the second half of 2024, Bitcoin has transitioned from 'liquidity release' to 'structural contraction'.

From a technical perspective, after breaking through the $100,000 mark, BTC has repeatedly shown signals of VEGAS death crosses, range oscillations, and declining trading volumes.

This actually corresponds to a macro cycle rule—the third phase of a bull market often adopts a consolidation pattern of 'exchanging time for space' to digest bubbles and expectations.

Historically, this phase typically lasts about 180 to 200 days.

Whether in 2017-2018 or 2021-2022, after the market shifted from 'overheated' to 'sideways', it required half a year or even longer for consolidation to complete the redistribution of capital and the clearing of risks.

If we take the high point of $107,000 in January 2025 as the starting point and project the timeline 200 to 400 days ahead, it is indeed possible to extend to early 2026, which is the next trend starting point.

From a global perspective, 2025 has entered an extremely special macro environment:

The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace is slowing, liquidity has been released, but has not formed a comprehensive easing;

The high U.S. fiscal deficit and sustained high bond yields pressure risk assets;

The U.S. dollar has returned to a strong cycle, with evident passive capital outflow from emerging markets and the crypto market.

In such an environment, although Bitcoin is still 'digital gold', it is also difficult to stand alone.

In other words, global capital is in the process of 're-pricing risk', and Bitcoin's short-term consolidation is a reflection of macro liquidity adjustments.

The past surge phase was built on the foundation of inflation panic and liquidity flooding;

Today’s period of consolidation is a stage of re-evaluating the 'faith in future growth'.

On-chain data shows that as of early November, the number of wallet addresses holding more than 100 BTC has been continuously increasing, with about 1,700 new Bitcoins added in just the past 24 hours.

This indicates that:

Large holders (whales and institutions) have not exited the market;

On the contrary, they are using retail investors' panic and short-term fluctuations to build positions structurally.

Past experience shows that the real bull market's second phase (main rising wave) often emerges from the most dull consolidation period.

Whales do not buy during the FOMO phase but accumulate positions during the time when 'no one cares'.

And this is exactly the current state of the market — narrowing volatility, low sentiment, but on-chain buying remains strong.

The cruelty of the investment market lies in:

Most people lose due to price fluctuations; in fact, what really determines victory or defeat is whether one can endure the test of time.

From a psychological perspective, the consolidation period is the stage where people are most likely to lose confidence.

Because prices neither drop nor rise, the temptation to trade diminishes, and the community's enthusiasm declines.

But this is precisely the market undergoing a 'big reshuffle' — washing out short-term speculators and leaving only those who can hold long-term and make rational judgments.

In such a cycle, the most correct strategy is often not to 'chase highs and cut losses', but to:

Maintain positions, take partial actions, and wait for new cycle signals to appear.

If analyzed from macro cycles and on-chain data,

Bitcoin may welcome a new trend confirmation in early 2026 — by then, macro liquidity will be loosened again, the Bitcoin halving effect fully released, and institutional ETF capital fully laid out.

In other words, the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026 may be the 'dark period before the new main rising wave'.

Whether one can stabilize positions and calmly wait at this stage will determine if investors can participate in the next 10x cycle.

Look at technology in the short term, and at logic in the long term.

Technical analysis tells us the rhythm of consolidation, while macro analysis reveals the direction of capital.

At this stage, Bitcoin may not plummet, but it also won't easily break new highs.

This is a contest of patience, perception, and belief.

Smart capital is laying out in silence, while impatient emotions are exhausted in fluctuations.

A true bull market never starts from a price breakout, but from the moment 'no one believes in it' anymore.