Bull and Bear Cycles Have Changed
When the S2F Reversion sharply rises above the 1 level, it has generally indicated either a peak or the beginning of a long horizontal correction period. This is clearly seen in the 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2024 peaks.
Drops below 1 have historically been the best risk/reward zones.
In the current chart, the Reversion value is high but not at extreme peak levels. SMAs are sloping upwards, but volume is weakening as it rises. This structure generally means:
The uptrend continues, but there is a loss of momentum. The intermediate upward trend is not broken. In the short term, the price may exhibit horizontal and volatile increases with small corrections, as it does today.
Bitcoin is neither cheap nor excessively expensive right now. The uptrend continues in the short term, but in the big picture, the downward trend seems likely to continue after the rise.
This post-ETF cycle differs from previous cycles because,
unlike previous cycles, there is a continuous, time-spread demand from institutional investors for spot ETFs. Therefore, although S2F Reversion spikes more frequently, it cannot remain in the extremely negative zone for as long as in past cycles.
Currently, with the Halving, the daily BTC supply has decreased by 50%. Miner selling pressure has structurally decreased. ETFs, however, gain importance at this point because they create net demand exceeding the daily BTC production. For this reason, bear seasons may be more superficial for Bitcoin.
Between 2017-2021, Reversion reached levels of 2+. Afterwards, a 70-80% bear market occurred.
Between 2024-2025, Reversion fluctuated between 1-3. Despite this, the price peaked. Throughout 2025, it moved horizontally both during rises and falls. The price even dropped horizontally from $127 to $81K. There were no sharp crashes.
In the big picture, ETFs and Halving extended and softened the classic 4-year cycle. Therefore, instead of a sudden crash like in 2021, a volatile but upward trend extending into 2025–2026 seems more likely. $BTC
