$ETH Ethereum market analysis: Currently, the Ethereum market around 3220 can be directly shorted, with a small stop-loss. We recommend a stop-loss at 3244 (about 20 points stop-loss).
Analysis: Currently, the bullish entry rate near 3210 is consistently greater than 2, and during the decline, the likelihood of the main force holding long positions is low. The upward movement does not provide liquidity for short positions (small profits, large profit withdrawals).
Analysis of possible decline processes: Currently, we may not see even a slightly larger rebound. The following two possibilities:
Possibility One (left image): After falling to around 3170, it will oscillate within a range, with the lower edge at 3170 and the upper edge at 3260. Within the range, there will be a change of hands to entice buying, and after gaining liquidity for short positions around 3250-3260, it will begin to accelerate downward.
Possibility Two (right image): The market continues to decline gently to around 3180 to entice buying, with a spike to clear positions, temporarily ending the market.
Regardless of the situation, the likelihood of a large upward movement is small. In other words, holding short near the current price of 3220, if it breaks 3244, we can stop-loss and exit. Even if the judgment is wrong, the trial and error cost is relatively low. Assuming the left image scenario requires oscillation, after a pin bar near 3170, we need to take profit and wait for a rebound to 3250 to consider shorting again. In the case of the second image, take profit is set around 3120.
Both possibilities are based on the assumption that we do not see a significant rebound upwards. If a stop-loss is hit, do not hold the position; it indicates that the judgment may be wrong, and one should exit directly.
