To understand what is missing for the next rally at the beginning of 2026, it is crucial to observe that the market is in a phase of "technical transition" and maturation. After a 2025 where Bitcoin reached historical highs (surpassing $120,000) and then corrected, the current sentiment is one of strategic caution.

Here I detail the key conditions that analysts consider necessary for the next big rise:

1. Macroeconomic Conditions (Liquidity)

The "fuel" of any rally is global liquidity. Currently, the market is awaiting two catalysts:

Interest Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB are expected to initiate or accelerate easing cycles in 2026, reducing rates to around 3% - 3.25%. This makes credit cheaper and pushes capital towards risk assets.

End of Quantitative Tightening (QT): The halt of balance sheet reductions by central banks is seen as a historic bullish signal that could inject a new wave of liquidity.

2. Technical Barriers and Key Levels

Bitcoin remains the market's thermometer. For the rally to be confirmed, these technical milestones must occur:

Overcoming the 365-day Moving Average: Currently situated close to $101,000. Recovering this level is the border between a bearish/neutral market and a sustained bullish phase.

Support Consolidation: It is vital for Bitcoin to maintain support between $85,000 and $90,000 to avoid a larger drop towards $78,000.

Expiration of Adjusted Volatility: The price has been very compressed; analysts expect an "explosion of volatility" that, if upward, would mark the beginning of the 2026 rally.

3. Institutional and Adoption Factors

Unlike previous rallies (2017 or 2021), the one in 2026 is shaping up to be structural, not purely speculative:

Flow in ETFs: A constant reactivation of inflows in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is required (estimated purchases of over 200,000 units per quarter to sustain the price).

Regulatory Clarity: Advances such as the CLARITY Act in the U.S. and custody regulation are fundamental for large institutions to feel secure entering the market.

Tokenization of Real Assets (RWA): The use of blockchain for stocks and properties is beginning to move real capital onto the network, providing fundamental value beyond the "hype."

4. What happens with Altcoins?

For now, the market is very fragmented. For an Altseason (widespread rise of small coins), the following is needed:

For Bitcoin to break its resistances and stabilize, allowing liquidity to "flow" downward.

Real utility: Projects without clear use cases are losing interest. The current focus is on infrastructure (The Graph), transfers (XRP), and AI applications (Render).