Brothers, did you wake up confused last night? Gold and silver directly hit historical intraday highs, with gold rising over 2% and silver surging 7%. Privacy coins also skyrocketed — Dusk rose by 80% in a single day, and the small coin Arp increased by 50%. Those who shorted in Binance contracts were completely wiped out.
But our BTC is still hovering around 93000, isn't this market a bit divided? Today we'll clarify the logic and opportunities behind it.
1. Geopolitical tensions are boiling over! Gold and privacy coins have become 'safe-haven assets'.
The core of this surge in precious metals is that geopolitical issues have completely ignited risk-averse sentiment:
• Iranian capital flight: Local wealthy individuals are worried about the outbreak of war, as legal currency cannot be transferred out, and BTC can be tracked. Therefore, gold, silver, and privacy coins have become the best 'escape tools'. After all, the anonymity of privacy coins perfectly meets the need for asset transfer without being tracked, which is also the underlying logic for the surge of coins like Dusk and Arp.
• Trump pressures Europe: In order to seize Greenland, Trump directly stated 'no compromise means taxes will increase', the EU is already preparing to counterattack with tariffs on 93 billion USD of American goods. This tariff game will likely be resolved by this Thursday, and before that, the market will be in a 'garbage time'.
• The crisis of independence of the Federal Reserve: The corruption case of former vice chairman Cook has reached the Supreme Court, and Powell rarely appeared to testify. If Cook is found guilty, it means the Federal Reserve has completely become Trump's 'tool', leading to greater uncertainty in subsequent monetary policy.
The liquidity in the market has not yet picked up, and the short-term pattern is a weak consolidation. Focus closely on events on the 27th and 28th—no one knows whether Trump will create any new variables.
2. Crypto hotspots: The privacy coin frenzy, opportunities and risks with new coins coexist.
1. Privacy coins have become a new safe haven.
Yesterday, privacy coins collectively surged, Dusk rose 80% in one day, Arp increased 50%, and FHE also reached an all-time high due to partners Zama's mainnet staking. This wave of increase is not just speculation; there is genuine geopolitical demand supporting it. However, be cautious: small coins have poor liquidity, and can rise quickly but also fall quickly, so don't chase high, focus on quick in and out.
2. Is Polymarket showing 'insider trading'?
An address that has been dormant for a year suddenly revived, betting on 'the US or Israel will strike Iran before January 31', directly raising the probability from 15% to 30%. The market generally speculates this is insider trading, as this timing is too sensitive. If the US-Iran conflict really escalates, safe-haven assets will rise again.
3. Long and short mutual tearing: Will ETH rise or fall?
Now the views on ETH within the circle are completely divided: Tony declares 'completely opposite to Yi Li Hua, either he dies or I live'. Such extreme divergence often means a change in the market trend, those holding ETH should pay close attention to market signals.
4. New coin opportunities: Elsa and Mega ETH are worth paying attention to.
• Elsa: Today it launched on Binance Alpha and Bybit, and Coinbase also announced its launch earlier. If Alpha's opening market value is low, you can try a small position.
• Mega ETH: The mainnet will go live on January 22, likely to be listed on exchanges for TGE, with expectations of a price difference if positioned early.
• S1: Because the original author published a new article, BNBChain followed suit, and the market expects it to go live on Binance Alpha. If the heat rises, you can participate in the short term.
3. Operational strategy: Don't chase in a consolidation market, wait for signals before taking action.
The overall market is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with insufficient liquidity. Remember these points in operation:
1. BTC: Support at 90000, resistance at 94000. Don't blindly bottom-fish, wait until the events on the 27th and 28th are settled before taking action.
2. Privacy coins: Can be followed but don't be greedy, quick in and out, for example, don't chase high for Dusk which has increased too much.
3. New coins: Elsa is looking at the opening market value, Mega ETH and other mainnet news, expectations for S1 and others being listed.
4. Safe-haven assets: The logic of gold, silver, and privacy coins still exists, but don't go all in, leave some bullets.
Do you think this wave of privacy coins can continue? Will the US-Iran conflict really break out? Let's discuss your views in the comments 👇
