$BTC broke through and chased a short position, currently it seems to be fine, so early this morning the idea given in the contract teaching channel was to chase the short after the break. I know that BTC is near the 98000 mark, which is a weekly resistance level. According to my idea, it should hover at a high level for a while before falling, but I didn't expect the market to be so weak that it just touched and then crashed down immediately. That's how a bear market works; we still need to earnestly manage risk and prepare for the next round of layout.

Talk about the market trend

Due to the news of Trump's tariff war and the significant reduction in expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, $BTC suddenly broke below the key support level of 94700, returning to the previous consolidation range.

The bottom of this range is 80,000, so if the second wave of sharp declines begins, we should first look at 80,000.

In the one and a half months prior, I repeatedly mentioned that before the real bear market's second wave of sharp declines, there would be a rebound to 98,000. On January 15, it reached 97,925, which is basically close enough.

Although it didn't reach a higher position, from the perspective of a major bear market, running a large portion to 98,000 is quite reasonable.

Unless this week BTC's weekly line strongly closes above 95,000, the second wave of declines in the bear market will be confirmed.

At that time, it will officially enter the track of value investment, and there will be no need to analyze medium and short-term techniques anymore.

The bottom is still near the miners' shutdown price, which is around the range of 55,000 to 60,000. If we insist on a rigid approach, based on the ratios from 2022, in extreme cases, it could drop to around 48,000, but I think the likelihood is low.

Considering that many governments and numerous treasury companies are hoarding Bitcoin, having 60,000 to 70,000 as the bottom seems reasonable.

AHR999 has never failed, at most showing some stagnation at the bottom.

When AHR999 drops to 0.45, I will go all in to buy at the bottom.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)