$BTC What's next?
The market's greed and fear index is now at 62 (greed zone).
Historically, major market rebounds generally peak around 60–70; even if this cycle reaches a high point of 125,000, the index was only 76 at that time.
So even if we are not at the top now, the upward space is very limited, and the probability of a pullback is clearly increasing. This is why I have consistently emphasized: reduce positions at highs, and it may even be time to start low-leverage long-term short positions.
Looking at the 'smart money':
If this is a major bottom, long-term holders should be adding to their positions, but the reality is quite the opposite — they continue to sell during the rebound, indicating the market does not recognize this as a bottoming area.
The horizontal comparison is even more evident:
US stocks, precious metals, and even A-shares are surging, while the high-risk asset Bitcoin is clearly underperforming; this does not resemble the start of a bull market but rather a weak rebound. More critically, once US stocks pull back, the crypto market cannot escape.
The macro environment is also deteriorating:
The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have been postponed again; the probability of a rate cut before April is 0, with the first cut likely delayed until June. The market has not fully priced this in, but smart money has already taken action.
The conclusion is clear:
👉 The current rebound has entered its latter stage, lasting from a few days to one or two weeks; a significant pullback is highly probable.
👉 The C wave is not over, do not rush to catch the bottom; surviving is more important.
This is not a bull market correction, but rather a final opportunity for a 'graceful exit'.
