Post
厂长布林带之神
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From the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency market, the view reflects a composite judgment on macro liquidity, technological cycles, and market sentiment. He believes that the market will show a pattern of initial suppression followed by a rise in 2026, initially constrained by geopolitical factors and tariff policies, but ultimately achieving a strong finish driven by a dovish turn from the Federal Reserve and the development of AI and blockchain industries. This judgment aligns with the typical performance of risky assets during shifts in liquidity expectations.
The expectation of Bitcoin reaching a new historical high is not an isolated view but is based on the logical foundation of capital flowing into risky assets after the onset of a rate-cutting cycle. It is noteworthy that he did not reiterate the previous prediction of $250,000, which may reflect increased short-term uncertainty or a re-evaluation of volatility risks. From related information, he has long emphasized the possibility of Ethereum's exchange rate rising against Bitcoin, which is closely related to institutional adoption, on-chain asset tokenization, and compliance processes.
Market divergences do exist, such as the target price differences between Galaxy Digital and JPMorgan, which fundamentally reflect divergences in the pace of liquidity easing. Tom Lee's consistent viewpoint shows that he is more inclined to seek certainty from structural trends (such as the integration of AI and blockchain, and the Federal Reserve's policy shift) rather than short-term price fluctuations. This perspective is particularly important in the cryptocurrency field, as the high volatility of assets often leads investors to focus excessively on noise while ignoring macro signals.
Ultimately, such predictions need to be dynamically adjusted based on the actual implementation of policies, on-chain data (such as stablecoin inflows, changes in institutional holdings), and global liquidity indicators. History shows that during rate-cutting cycles, crypto assets typically possess the potential for excess returns, but the path's complexity often exceeds initial expectations.
The expectation of Bitcoin reaching a new historical high is not an isolated view but is based on the logical foundation of capital flowing into risky assets after the onset of a rate-cutting cycle. It is noteworthy that he did not reiterate the previous prediction of $250,000, which may reflect increased short-term uncertainty or a re-evaluation of volatility risks. From related information, he has long emphasized the possibility of Ethereum's exchange rate rising against Bitcoin, which is closely related to institutional adoption, on-chain asset tokenization, and compliance processes.
Market divergences do exist, such as the target price differences between Galaxy Digital and JPMorgan, which fundamentally reflect divergences in the pace of liquidity easing. Tom Lee's consistent viewpoint shows that he is more inclined to seek certainty from structural trends (such as the integration of AI and blockchain, and the Federal Reserve's policy shift) rather than short-term price fluctuations. This perspective is particularly important in the cryptocurrency field, as the high volatility of assets often leads investors to focus excessively on noise while ignoring macro signals.
Ultimately, such predictions need to be dynamically adjusted based on the actual implementation of policies, on-chain data (such as stablecoin inflows, changes in institutional holdings), and global liquidity indicators. History shows that during rate-cutting cycles, crypto assets typically possess the potential for excess returns, but the path's complexity often exceeds initial expectations.
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