In-depth analysis
1. Shock waves (Bearish impact)
Overview: Bitcoin has fallen like global markets after Trump threatened to impose tariffs of 10 to 25% on EU/NATO allies due to disputes over Greenland (January 20-21), a situation exacerbated by a massive sell-off of Japanese government bonds that saw 30-year yields reach 17-year highs.
What this means:
- Risky assets have suffered massive liquidations, with investors flocking to gold (+4.5% in 48 hours).
- Cryptocurrency markets recorded liquidations of over $1 billion, including $285 million (54% of the total) for long positions on Bitcoin.
- Historical correlation shows that Bitcoin struggles when bond volatility spills over into risk assets.
Key points to watch: Proposed customs resolution timeline by Trump for February 1 and the Bank of Japan's response to bond market tensions.
2. Technical analysis (bearish moment)
Overview: BTC has broken down through critical technical levels:
- 7-day simple moving average ($93,943) and 30-day simple moving average ($90,775)
- 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($95,158) from the December-January rise
Significance:
- The RSI(14) at 39.61 indicates bearish momentum, but no extreme oversold signal.
- The MACD histogram (-297) confirms the most pronounced bearish divergence since December 2025.
- Next support: 78.6% Fibonacci ($88,861) and 200-day exponential moving average ($99,384).
Point to watch: a daily close below $88,800 could trigger algorithmic sales.
3. Whale activity refreshes (Mitigated impact)
Overview: On-chain data shows that whales sold approximately $80 million of BTC near $90,000 with minimal reaccumulation, reversing their buying frenzy of $260 million from January 6 and 7.
What it means:
- Decreased buying support from major market players
- Drop in whale influx ratio on exchanges to 0.47 (its lowest level since December 15)
- 5.93% decrease in open positions on futures due to the unwinding of leverage
Conclusion
The drop in Bitcoin combines macroeconomic shocks, technical deterioration, and weakening institutional support. While the U.S. Treasury's decision to hold seized BTC could ease selling pressure in the future, markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments.
Key point to watch: Can BTC hold above $88,800 amid rising yields on Japanese government bonds and EU tariff measures? Watch the CME gap at $87,500, which could influence the price.$BTC
