The global financial circle is focused on the successor to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the suspense will soon be resolved. Current Chairman Jerome Powell will step down in May, and Trump stated on January 21 in Davos that he has basically locked in the candidate, saying, "There may only be one left in my mind," and also criticized Powell's performance, implying that life after his departure will not be easy. The Treasury Secretary revealed that the nomination will be announced as soon as next week to eliminate market volatility.
Currently, the frontrunner is former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh, with a predicted probability of 60% on the Polymarket platform. He has deep qualifications, having favored tightening policies to combat inflation in the past, and now supports interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's demands. BlackRock's Rick Riedel has emerged as a dark horse, lacking a PhD in economics, is a practical Wall Street figure, advocates for cutting interest rates to 3%, and stays away from political disputes, earning praise from Trump.
Current Governor Waller has a moderate style and focuses on stable employment, closely following behind. The originally popular Hassett has seen his probability drop to around 15% because Trump wants to keep him in his current position, making him unlikely. The Justice Department's summons of Powell for a stricter Senate review actually benefits Riedel. Walsh's rise may cool expectations for interest rate cuts, while Riedel could accelerate the cuts, and the final result awaits Trump's official announcement.
