$BTC is currently navigating a complex phase of prolonged consolidation, trading near the $89,000 - $90,000 zone. Following a recent rejection at the $98,000 resistance level, the market is experiencing a "wait-and-see" approach. The primary reason for the recent downward pressure is a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and significant outflows from Spot BTC ETFs, totaling over $700 million recently. Geopolitical tensions, specifically new tariff announcements and safe-haven repricing, have caused investors to shift capital toward gold, leaving crypto in a temporary bearish grip. The Fear & Greed Index is currently showing "Extreme Fear" (around 24), which historically suggests that while the sentiment is low, we might be approaching a local bottom.
Should you buy now?
For short-term traders, caution is advised until Bitcoin successfully reclaims the $92,500 (20-day EMA) level. However, for long-term investors, this dip toward the $88,000 support represents a potential "buy the dip" opportunity, as the structural trend on the weekly timeframe remains bullish.
Upside Scenario (Why it could go up):
If BTC holds the $88,000 support and breaks above $93,500, the next targets are $96,000 and the psychological barrier of $100,000. The primary driver for an upward move would be a resurgence in institutional demand and a "short squeeze" of liquidated bearish bets.
Downside Scenario (Why it could go down):
If the $88,000 support fails, we could see a deeper correction toward $84,000 or even the $81,100 "True Market Mean." Continued ETF outflows and further geopolitical escalations are the main risks that could trigger this downward move.