ETH/BTC has remained in compression for ~1100 days within the same range that marked the breakout of the previous cycle.
ALTS/BTC show defense of historical support after multiple years of underperformance.
This characterizes a transition zone, not a defined trend.
Prolonged compressions alter asymmetry.
The risk is not only of continued decline, but also of violent directional movement when:
• dominance of $BTC stabilizes
• risk spreads begin to close
• marginal flow seeks beta
The chart does not predict.
It redefines payoff.
Altseason is not an event.
It is a consequence of rotation.
No improvement in:
• global liquidity
• financial conditions
• relative flow
There is no thesis.
Objective question:
Is your allocation today positioned for probability… or just reacting to past price?
