$FIL The truth after a 70% crash: Is it a 'zero' risk or a 'halving' benefit?
2025 will be an extremely painful year for $FIL, with a drop of over 72.06%, becoming what many refer to as a 'losing coin.' However, standing at the juncture of January 2026, we must reassess its logic:
📍 Technical aspect: Currently forming a bottom limit in the range of $1.2 - $1.5. The support level at $1.245 has been tested multiple times, and the bottom formation is beginning to show.
📍 Core catalyst: Block rewards will be halved in October 2026! This is the first halving in FIL's history, at which point the annual inflation rate will see a steep decline, and the supply-demand inflection point is imminent.
📍 Long-term logic: Grayscale's cumulative 85 times increase in holdings is no joke. Distributed storage is an indispensable foundational infrastructure in the AI era.
Summary: Short-term outlook is volatile, mid-term looks towards halving. Although there is a drawback of slow retrieval speed, the current price has a very high payoff potential.
Suggestion: Reject short-term speculation and focus on long-term layout while waiting for fundamental improvements.
Although the current ecological blood generation capability is still weak, if you are looking for a long-term variety with extremely high odds, FIL is definitely worth adding to your watchlist.
The bottom has appeared; will you choose to cut losses and exit, or quietly position yourself? Let's discuss your views in the comments! 👇