#Ethereum market mood has suddenly turned negative, with traders now expecting prices to fall before any big recovery.

Here’s the simple version:

On a prediction site called Myriad, traders now think there’s about a 62% chance Ethereum drops to $2,500 before reaching $4,000 again.

Just a few days ago, opinions were split and earlier this week, most people actually expected $ETH to bounce back toward $4,000.

Right now, Ethereum is trading near $3,008, after falling more than 10% in a week. It even dipped below $2,900 earlier.

Even with this short-term fear, the long-term picture looks calmer.

Ethereum runs on a system where people called validators lock up 32 ETH to help secure the network. If they stop behaving properly or their systems go offline, they can lose some of that stake.

Earlier this week, something interesting happened:

for a short time, no validators were waiting to exit meaning nobody was rushing to pull out their $ETH . That’s usually a sign that long-term holders are still confident.

Now the number of validators wanting to exit has risen slightly to 94, but that’s tiny compared to the millions waiting to join the network. Anyone new who wants to become a validator would still have to wait more than 48 days.

One analyst explained that some validators might sell part of their ETH if prices fall sharply but that usually doesn’t happen often. And even when it does, there’s good liquidity in the market for staked $ETH , which helps reduce panic.

Bottom line:

Traders are nervous about Ethereum in the short term and see a possible drop to $2,500… but long-term network participants aren’t rushing for the exits yet, suggesting confidence in Ethereum’s fundamentals hasn’t disappeared.