The chart compares the Fully Diluted Market Cap (FDV) of Ethereum with the total TVL of the ecosystem. Historically, this relationship acts as a thermometer for structural undervaluation.
🔍 What the red circles show
In the last two times the FDV of $ETH fell below or touched the TVL:
2020
2022
👉 Both marked macro bottom zones and asymmetric buying opportunities before significant upward movements.
Today, the chart shows again:
📉 Compression between FDV and TVL
📈 Resilient TVL, even with price pressure
⚠️ Market pricing regulatory risk, not usage collapse
🧠 Structural reading (not emotional)
TVL represents productive capital, not narrative.
If the locked value grows while the FDV does not keep up, the market is underpricing the utility of the network.
In previous cycles, this did not last long.
🏗️ The differential of this cycle
Now Ethereum has:
Stablecoins as global financial infrastructure
L2s scaling real use
Institutions already exposed via ETFs and regulated products
In other words: the structural "floor" tends to rise with each cycle.
⚖️ Clarity Act
The current risk is legal, not technological.
If there is:
clear definition about stablecoins
regulatory framing of $ETH as commodity
👉 the market reprices quickly, as it always has.
