$ETH is currently trading at 2,919, sitting exactly on a major trendline support. The market structure is flashing warning signs, but we are at a pivotal decision point. Here is the breakdown:
📉 The Bearish Case (Macro View)
Trend: The Daily chart shows a clear rejection from the top of the triangle structure. We are now pressing heavy on the bottom support.
Resistance: Price is stuck below the EMA(7) and EMA(20). These are acting as a dynamic ceiling, pushing price down.
Momentum: Selling volume is dominating (Order book shows ~74% Sell pressure).
👀 The Scalp Opportunity (Micro View)
Oversold: On the 15m chart, RSI is at 15.10. This is extremely oversold.
Caution: While a relief bounce is due, the price is "hugging" the lower Bollinger Bands—a sign of weak buyer interest.
🎯 The Trade Plan
Scenario A: The Breakdown (Primary Bias 🐻)
If we see a 1H or 4H candle close below $2,900, the support is lost.
Entry: On the retest of $2,900 as resistance.
Target: $2,750 - $2,623 (Previous lows).
Stop Loss: $2,960.
Scenario B: The Dead Cat Bounce (Risky/Scalp 🐂)
Because RSI is so low, a short-term bounce is possible.
Trigger: Only if price reclaims $2,940 with volume.
Target: $3,000 (Retesting the daily EMA).
Stop Loss: Tight below $2,890.
Verdict: Lean Short, but patience is key. Don't short at support—wait for the $2,900 level to break cleanly first.
What’s your move? Catching the knife or waiting for the drop? Let me know below! 👇
