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Key financial dynamics
· AI industry technology impact
· Event: The low-cost AI model of DeepSeek-R1 raises concerns about a bubble in computing power demand.
· Impact Path: The leading AI computing power companies (like Nvidia) see stock prices plummet → Market risk appetite sharply declines → Funds withdraw from high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
· Market Performance: On January 26, Bitcoin fell over 6% along with Nvidia and TSMC.
· Geopolitical and trade tensions
· Event: The US and Europe are embroiled in a sovereignty dispute over Greenland, with the US threatening to impose tariffs.
· Impact Path: Triggering global trade uncertainty → Market volatility increases, risk aversion rises → High-risk crypto assets come under pressure.
· Latest developments: Trump has softened his stance at the Davos Forum, stating that a cooperation framework has been reached and the threat of tariffs has been lifted, leading to a slight market rebound.
· Global interest rate and liquidity expectations
· Events: Japan's long-term government bond yields surged; the Federal Reserve will have liquidity operations and reports this week.
· Impact Pathway: The rising financing costs of global 'cheap yen' may lead to the liquidation of arbitrage trades → Expectations of tightening global liquidity → Unfavorable for the cryptocurrency market that requires ample liquidity.
· Policy dynamics: Trump has promised to sign legislation supporting cryptocurrencies, which is seen as a long-term positive signal.
Today's market trend analysis: The tug-of-war between bulls and bears intensifies
1. Optimistic view: The sell-off is nearing its end, and a rebound is expected
· Core logic: The market is already in the 'bottoming phase.' JPMorgan's analysis indicates that the severe sell-off may be nearing its end, ETF funds are starting to stabilize, and the most difficult period for the market may have passed.
· Technicals: The Fear and Greed Index shows the market is in a 'neutral' state, and some technical indicators indicate overselling, suggesting the possibility of a technical rebound.
2. Pessimistic view: Macro pressures continue, and the risk of decline remains
· Core Logic: The macro 'headwinds' are strong. Bloomberg's senior strategist has issued a pessimistic forecast, believing that under the potential global 'deflation' cycle, Bitcoin prices may face significant pullback pressure.
· Market structure: The correlation between the cryptocurrency market and global risk assets (especially tech stocks) is strengthening; if US tech stocks continue to adjust, it will be difficult for the cryptocurrency market to remain unaffected.
3. Today's (January 23) key points of contention
· Positive support: Trump's positive comments on cryptocurrency legislation, and institutions like JPMorgan's judgments on market bottoms.
· Negative pressure: Whether the sentiment in the tech sector stemming from AI stocks continues to deteriorate, and the effect of rising global interest rate expectations on capital outflow.
In summary, today's market will contend between 'positive policy expectations' and 'macro negative realities,' with potential for increased volatility. The probability of accurately predicting single-day fluctuations is low, but the overall environment indicates that risks remain high.
Current operational thinking
· Focus on defense: Given the current high macro uncertainty, the primary consideration should be to control overall position risk, avoiding overly aggressive strategies.
· Focus on quality: If considering investments, prioritize core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have large market caps, good liquidity, and relatively stable fundamentals, while being especially cautious of high-volatility altcoins and meme coins.
· Pay attention to key signals: Closely monitor the performance of US stocks (especially leading AI stocks like Nvidia), US core PCE inflation data, and any substantial progress on cryptocurrency legislation.
