📊 Analysis — BTC x Global Liquidity (Fair Value Model)
The chart shows three key things:
• Green line (Fair Value) → "fair" price of BTC based on global liquidity
• Orange line (BTC Price) → market price
• Shaded area → acceptable statistical zone (±1 deviation)
What this says today:
• The price of $BTC is below or very close to the Fair Value, even with:
• Global liquidity expanding
• Less restrictive monetary policy on the horizon
• Structural entry of institutional capital (ETFs, custody, derivatives)
📌 In previous cycles, when $BTC was below Fair Value, it did not last long; the adjustment came through the price, not through liquidity.
👉 In other words: it is not that $BTC is weak, it is the liquidity that has not yet been fully priced in.
🧠 Simple translation
The market has not yet reflected all the liquidity available in the global system.
When this happens, historically, Bitcoin catches up.
