🇺🇸 US Debt Refinancing Risk Is Rising (Fast)

26% of the U.S. federal debt matures within the next 12 months — one of the highest rollover shares seen this century.

For context:

The previous peak was ~29% in 2020, when the Fed rate was close to 0%

From 2010–2020, this share stayed mostly below 20%

Today the policy rate is around 3.75%, and markets are pricing in two rate cuts this year

What does it mean?

Roughly $10 trillion in U.S. debt may need to be refinanced over the next year — at materially higher interest rates compared to the zero-rate era.

Why it matters for markets

Higher refinancing costs can:

increase pressure on the U.S. budget deficit

keep bond yields elevated

tighten overall financial conditions

support demand for “risk-off” positioning when uncertainty spikes

Key question:

Do you think refinancing pressure will force faster rate cuts — or will inflation risks keep rates higher for longer?

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk.