Coinbase and Glassnode's forecast for Q1 2026: what is important now?
Coinbase and Glassnode assess the cryptocurrency market as more resilient entering 2026, but without signs of overheating and euphoria.
In Q4 2025, excessive leverage exited the system, reducing the risks of sharp declines. The macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive: inflation has stabilized, the U.S. economy is strong, and the market expects two rate cuts from the Fed in 2026.
Investors' focus has shifted towards large assets. Bitcoin appears more preferable, while small altcoins remain under pressure. There has been no capitulation: 62% of institutions and 70% of retail investors maintained or increased positions after the autumn drop.
At the same time, BTC is in a distribution phase: on-chain activity is rising, hedging through options is actively used, and retail sentiment remains cautious. Ethereum appears closer to the mature phase of the cycle, despite a strengthening foundation due to upgrades and L2.
Conclusion
The market enters 2026 in a stable but cautious phase. The priority is asset quality and risk management, rather than a pursuit of quick growth.
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