Coinbase and Glassnode have published an assessment of the cryptocurrency market's state for the first quarter of 2026. In short, the market enters the new year in a more resilient form, but without clear euphoria.
Market Condition
In the fourth quarter of 2025, excess leverage exited the system. This reduced the risk of overheating and made the current structure healthier.
Macro background
Inflation has stabilized, and the US economy remains strong. The market is still pricing in two rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, which supports risk assets.
Investor focus
The current structure is favorable for large assets. Bitcoin remains in the spotlight, while small altcoins continue to face pressure.
Participant behavior
62% of institutional and 70% of private investors maintained or increased their crypto positions after the October drawdown. This indicates a lack of capitulation.
Asset valuation
70% of institutions believe BTC is undervalued. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is in the distribution phase: on-chain activity is rising, options are being used for hedging, and retail sentiment remains in a zone of anxiety rather than euphoria.
Separately about Ethereum
ETH appears closer to the mature phase of the cycle: growth potential is lower than in previous cycles, although the network's fundamentals have strengthened due to upgrades and L2 solutions.
Risks
Rising inflation, spikes in energy prices, or geopolitical escalation could once again increase pressure on risk assets.
Conclusion
The market looks resilient but not unequivocally bullish. At the beginning of 2026, the priority will be asset quality and risk management rather than a chase for yield.
This is not financial advice, but a market analysis.
