We live in a statistical illusion. For billions, the calm between superpowers is the norm of civilization. Geopolitics, however, whispers an uncomfortable truth: this is a historical anomaly.

Eighty years ago, great nations have avoided direct wars — the longest interval since Rome. It was no coincidence, but post-trauma engineering: leaders, haunted by two world wars, erected barriers against the unthinkable. The risk? This triumph blinded us, paving the way for our ruin.

The Rule of Three Numbers: 80, 80 and 9

Three figures diagnose this fragile order:

  • 80 years without direct war between powers.

  • 80 years without nuclear explosion in combat.

  • Only 9 nations with atomic monopoly in a world of 200 countries.

This triad drove miracles: tripled population, doubled life expectancy, global GDP multiplied by 15. In the "Long Peace" of the Cold War, cooperation trumped annihilation. As historian Steven Pinker said: "If the 20th century repeated the violence of millennia past, no one here would be reading this."

The Forgotten Miracle, 12,600 Warheads Adrift

After the Soviet collapse, 12,600 nuclear warheads roamed through fragile states — more than the current arsenal of the USA and Russia combined. Creative diplomacy from Washington and Moscow dismantled them by 1996. Cruel irony: Ukraine gave up its "shield" for violated guarantees, becoming a living lesson against disarmament.

Today, South Korea and others question non-proliferation. In a crypto world, where trust is code and not borders, this strategic "unnaturalness" resembles blockchains without proof-of-stake: unstable by design.

The Amnesia Trap, We Forgot the Normal

The worst enemy of peace is forgetfulness. Without memory of total wars, we believe them impossible. Henry Kissinger, in his last words of 2023, warned: 80 years do not mark a century. Conflict is the historical rule; peace, the exception. Complacency precedes collapse — like bull runs ignoring bears.

The Empire Equation, Debt > Defense

American hegemony sustains everything, but it fractures. From 50% of global GDP in 1945 to 15% today. Ray Dalio calls it "super-extension": empires fall when debt interest exceeds military spending. Sun Tzu summarized: "Prolonged armies exhaust the state."

China emerges in the Thucydides Trap — rising vs. established. For crypto, it's the perfect setup: a weak dollar boosts Bitcoin as a global store of value.

The Nuclear Taboo on the Tightrope

The "nuclear taboo" — untouchable weapons — almost broke in 2022. CIA saw a 50% chance of Russia in Ukraine. Salvation came from unlikely US-China pressure. But invisible wires break easily. Break once, and proliferation explodes — nations rushing for atomic shields, like miners for hashrate in a bear market.

Reform or Bleed, Strategic Imagination

Peace requires constant maintenance. Geopolitical cycles exhaust; revanchists return. Hegel wryly noted: "We learn from history that we learn nothing from it." Post-1945 demanded genius vision. Today? We need renewed diplomacy — or history will teach via blood the value of stability we disdain.

In crypto, this screams: diversify. While powers fight, Bitcoin and DeFi become the new non-proliferables.

It's just an exercise in futurology — nothing to take seriously. Think from other angles, step outside the box and explore the unexpected.