Monero (XMR) is hovering above the 500 USD mark at the time of recording on Saturday, with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) continuing to act as an important support 'cushion'. The increase in open interest (OI) in the XMR futures market, along with the trend of increasing long positions, indicates that new money is returning as traders bet on the recovery potential of this privacy coin. Nevertheless, the technical picture around the 500 USD threshold is still not entirely clear, as momentum indicators continue to signal caution, leaning towards a correction scenario.
The retail demand for Monero is warming up.
Monero is gradually regaining its appeal in the eyes of retail investors, as the market begins to expect a revival of the 'privacy money story'. According to data from CoinGlass, the OI of XMR futures contracts has increased by 2.37% in the past 24 hours, reaching 217.69 million USD, indicating that new money is returning and pushing the value of open contracts higher.
XMR derivative data | Source: CoinGlass
This improvement is further reinforced as the funding rate remains at a positive 0.0128%, reflecting the optimistic sentiment of traders. Notably, long positions account for up to 53.99% of the total open contracts during the same period, indicating that the 'Long' side is clearly dominating the market.
XMR long/short ratio chart | Source: CoinGlass
Technical outlook: Is Monero ready for a bullish comeback?
Monero is holding strong above the psychological threshold of 500 USD after a strong recovery from the 50-day EMA around 488 USD midweek, thus keeping the short-term outlook of this privacy coin still leaning positive. Notably, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs continue to slope upwards, reinforcing the foundation for an upward trend in the overall picture.
However, technical signals are showing a certain caution. The MACD line of the MACD indicator is approaching the 0 line after crossing below the signal line on the daily frame, pulling along the extended negative histogram bars — a sign that correction pressure is gradually forming.
In parallel, the RSI index has retreated to around 49 and is hovering near the neutral line, reflecting the accumulation state of the market after the previous overbought excitement.
Daily XMR/USDT chart | Source: TradingView
Technically, the nearest support area for XMR is at the 50-day EMA at 488 USD. If the daily closing price breaks through this level, the risk of a deeper correction will open up, with targets respectively at the 100-day EMA around 436 USD and the 200-day EMA at 381 USD — an area considered a 'shield' for the medium-term trend.
In a positive scenario, if buying pressure helps XMR bounce firmly from the 500 USD area, the recovery could extend to the R2 Pivot Point at 569 USD, further up to the strong resistance area around the R3 Pivot Point at 640 USD.
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