An extreme signal is starting to appear in Bitcoin on-chain data.
Net Realized Profit and Loss is showing a clear shift. Bitcoin investors are beginning to sell at a loss.
When you look back at history, this pattern has shown up more than once.
First, realized profits start to fade.
As price momentum weakens, fewer participants are able to take profit. This tells us demand is no longer strong enough to absorb supply at higher levels.
Next, realized losses begin to dominate.
Price continues to soften, and more investors are forced to sell below their cost basis. In previous cycles, this phase often marked the transition from distribution into redistribution, not an immediate reversal.
The important part is this.
Each time realized losses expand in a meaningful way, the market usually moves into a deeper correction or a prolonged consolidation, rather than bouncing right away.
This does not mean the cycle is over.
But it does suggest a few things clearly.
Market sentiment is weakening.
Selling pressure is becoming forced, not proactive profit taking.
Leverage and short term expectations are being slowly washed out.
Historically, these phases are where weaker hands exit the market, while patient capital steps back, observes, and begins preparing for what comes next.
This is a moment worth paying close attention to.
