Newbie Market Observation Day 2: The Consolidation Phase, Patience Is More Important Than Action

The current cryptocurrency market continues to exhibit a narrow range of fluctuations, with BTC oscillating slightly around $89,000 and ETH holding firm at the $2,950 mark. Overall market volume remains sluggish, still in the emotional recovery phase after extreme fear.

Key Influencing Factors

Capital Flow: The inflow of funds into BTC spot ETFs has significantly slowed, while ETH ETFs have seen net outflows. The decrease in the market capitalization of stablecoins, coupled with redemption pressure from Grayscale's GBTC, means that the selling pressure on mainstream coins has not been fully released.

Market Sentiment: Although the Fear and Greed Index has shown slight recovery, it remains at a low level. Investor sentiment is cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. Long and short positions are in a stalemate, and short-term capital is only engaged in range trading.

Macroeconomic Environment: Global geopolitical risks and the uncertainty of U.S. economic data continue to suppress market risk appetite, becoming a significant resistance to market upward movements.

Neutral View on Mainstream Coins / Sectors

BTC is expected to consolidate in the $88,500-$90,600 range in the short term, with clear support below and resistance above. Until a breakout occurs with substantial volume, a trending market is unlikely; ETH follows BTC's movements, oscillating between $2,900-$3,030, lacking independent rebound momentum, primarily focusing on consolidation. Some niche coins have shown independent trends, but the rapid rotation of funds makes it challenging for newcomers to participate.

Recommendations for Newcomers

Position Management: Maintain a light position and observe, with mainstream coin holdings not exceeding 50%. The remaining funds should be held in stablecoins, and high leverage should be avoided.

Operational Strategy: During the consolidation period, abandon timing strategies, pause or reduce the amount of regular investments, avoid chasing small rebounds within the range, and do not panic sell low-positioned chips.

Stop Loss and Take Profit: If holding positions, set the stop-loss for BTC at $88,500 and for ETH at $2,900. Exit decisively if support is broken; if not breached, hold patiently.

Information Source: Only focus on official announcements from exchanges and authoritative data platforms like Glassnode, filtering out predictions of price movements and coin recommendations from community sources.

Risk Warning

Cryptocurrency asset prices are highly volatile, and sudden news during a consolidation phase can easily trigger breakouts. Global cryptocurrency regulatory policies still carry uncertainties, which may lead to market fluctuations. This article serves only as a market observation reference and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment decisions should be made independently, and risks are borne by the investor.