Last night, silver was absolutely crazy, directly breaking $100, with a daily increase of more than 6%. Gold is not to be outdone, continuing to sharpen its knives around the $5000 mark. Logically, 'digital gold' should be moving, but the big cryptocurrency has been crushed by $1.6 billion outflow from ETFs, remaining stagnant around the 90,000 mark, which is quite exhausting to watch.


Key points for today:

CZ opens his mouth: Old Zhao thinks the traditional 4-year cycle is about to break, and this year may directly start a 'super cycle'. Although Big Brother is still in the monitoring phase, this trend looks pretty solid, and long-term holders can take a bite.

The IPO tide is here: BitGo surged 20% on its first day on the New York Stock Exchange, and Ledger is also aiming for a $4 billion IPO. This shows that although cryptocurrency prices aren't great, infrastructure is still appealing to traditional capital.

Moonbirds resurrected: thanks to the news of issuing tokens (BIRB) on the 28th, the floor price has increased significantly. In this market, without some real good news, NFTs can't really take off.

Trump's 'Greenland situation': He claims to have gained access, but CNN says there's not even a written agreement. This typical 'Trump-style' game, aside from raising risk aversion, has little practical significance for the market.

[This week's review: A game called 'Liquidity Tear']

If you review this week, you'll find that the market has differentiated greatly:

1. The narrative has been 'stolen':

The narrative we've been promoting about 'hedging' and 'anti-inflation' was completely taken over by physical gold and silver this week. Gold and silver surged ahead, while Bitcoin was pushed down by US institutions. ETFs have seen outflows for 4 consecutive days, and this pressure is indeed significant.

2. Cold treatment from regulators:

After Trump took office, people realized he wasn't going to 'regulate' crypto but rather just 'ignored' it. This regulatory vacuum has strengthened the casino effect, but the narrative of 'rebellion' has also been lost.

3. Reverse penetration by traditional institutions:

On one side, cryptocurrency prices are declining, while on the other, companies like BitGo and Ledger are embracing the traditional stock market fiercely. Binance even wants to restart its stock token business. The money of the future is likely to enter through ETFs and compliant channels; that kind of 'violent bull' where hundreds of altcoins fly together may really not be seen in the short term.

4. Cold reflections on the payment track:

McKinsey's data is quite interesting, with stablecoin settlements at 35 trillion, but real payments only at 1%. This indicates that everyone still treats U as chips in a casino, not as real money.

☕️ Casual summary:

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around 90,000. If it can't reclaim 96,000 on the 4-hour chart, it will basically remain in weak fluctuations. Don't expect it to soar alongside gold and silver until Wall Street's sell orders are fully completed. As for altcoins, since the sentiment hasn't returned, it's advisable to watch more and act less, so you don't run out of bullets before dawn.

Look ahead to next week: Can the TGE of Moonbirds on January 28 spark a small climax? Also, when will the ETF sell-offs come to an end?

#黄金白银 #CZ #MoonBirds