20260124美盘分析

【美盘分析】

The risk appetite in the US market continues to weaken, with capital pricing leaning towards defense rather than offense

• Precious metals continue to strengthen, while crypto assets are under pressure; capital risk appetite has not returned

• Sentiment quickly shifted from greed to fear, with prices becoming dull in response to positive news

【BTC Structure】

There is a significant divergence between long-term valuation narratives and short-term price structures

• The market remains in a downtrend + sideways range, and the trend has not escaped the suppression of the past few months

• BTC.D tests 200MA/EMA; if it strengthens, it will continue to squeeze the performance of altcoins

【Market Sentiment】

The macro narrative is divided, and trading confidence is at a low level

• Some opinions emphasize that "reasonable valuation is severely underestimated," but this has not translated into buying pressure

• Sentiment indicators shifted from greed to extreme fear within a week, reflecting weak confidence

【Capital Flow】

Incremental capital is prioritizing precious metals and defensive assets

• Gold broke through $5,000, with whales continuously allocating through $XAUT

• The crypto market is more about existing stock games, lacking clear risk capital inflow

【Macro / External】

Traditional financial risk exposure strengthens the logic of risk aversion

• Blackstone's private credit assets have significantly depreciated, raising concerns about the credit cycle

• The long-term allocation logic of precious metals has been re-priced by the market

【Altcoin Observation】

High-value targets are showing profit-taking signals

• AXS showed technical profit-taking signals after a significant rise

• Whales frequently adjust their positions, but the overall winning rate and sustainability are low

【Trading Thought】

The current environment leans more towards managing risks rather than chasing returns

• Before the trend becomes clear, price fluctuations are more driven by emotions and capital mismatches

• Waiting for structural confirmation, rather than preemptively betting based on "reasonable price" narratives