The #silver market is sending a message that many are choosing to ignore. As of January 24, 2026, the official exchange price for silver has finally breached the historic $100 mark, but this "screen price" tells only half the story.
In the physical market, a massive pricing disconnect is emerging as global supply reaches a breaking point. While paper contracts trade near $104, the cost to acquire physical metal in international hubs is significantly higher:
⭐COMEX (Paper): ~$104
⭐Japan (Physical): ~$130+
⭐China (Physical): Large premiums due to new export controls
💡Key Market Insights💡
Systemic Pressure: This unprecedented gap between paper and physical prices suggests a system under extreme stress. In a functional market, arbitrage would close these spreads within days; instead, the divide is widening as physical inventories in London and New York are drained.
The Paper Trap: Financial institutions holding massive short positions face a critical threat. If silver were to trade at its true physical clearing price—estimated by some analysts between $130 and $150—the resulting losses would impact balance sheets and capital ratios.
Supply Crisis: On January 1, 2026, China implemented strict export controls on silver, reclassifying it as a strategic asset. This move has effectively "ring-fenced" nearly 60% of the global refined supply, heightening the structural deficit.
Hidden Accumulation: While the public focuses on screen prices, major players are quietly withdrawing physical silver from vaults. This buildup of tension often precedes a violent market break once the paper market can no longer suppress the reality of physical scarcity.
