Gold jumped by 85% over the last 12 months, igniting a wave of FOMO in the markets. It feels unstoppable, and this rise is 'different this time'... but history says otherwise.
📜 Lessons from historical golden rallies (Parabolic Moves)
1️⃣ 1980 – Classic collapse
Gold reached ~850 dollars per ounce
Confidence was at its peak, and fear of inflation was everywhere
Outcome: 40–60% decline over several years
Late buyers got filtered out
Parabolic peaks do not fade quietly… they violently reset the market
2️⃣ 2011 – 'Once in a generation' event
Gold reached ~$1,920 per ounce
Narrative: Money printing, debt crises, currency fears
From 2011 to 2015: ~43% decline, years of sideways trading
Sentiment shifted from euphoria to frustration
Even historical rises may face the risk of collapse
3️⃣ 2020 – Correction over time
Gold reached ~$2,075 per ounce
20–25% decline by 2022, slower
The real impact: long-term cohesion, loss of momentum, and high opportunity cost
Not all corrections are sharp—some are slow and frustrating
⚖️ The recurring pattern over decades
After rises of 60–85%:
Gold typically corrects 20–40%
Moves sideways for years
Digesting gains is part of the cycle
The sharper and more emotional the rise, the deeper the correction.
🧠 Summary
Gold is a long-term hedge, not a guaranteed straight-line gain.
Parabolic phases:
Seems permanent
Certainty is born
Attracts leverage and FOMO
…then comes 'reality.'
Understanding history is not pessimism, but realism.
When the rise seems unstoppable, this is usually a time when the market needs to adjust expectations.
