$AAVE
AAVEUSDT — Rejection at Key Weekly Resistance in Bear Market
AAVEUSDT is trading at $156.45, showing clear rejection after testing the $161.34 weekly resistance level. The asset remains entrenched in a severe macro downtrend, down nearly -55% over the last year. This bounce appears to be a classic bear market retest of broken support, offering a high-probability short entry as the primary trend reasserts itself.
Trade Plan (Short - Failed Retest of Breakdown)
Entry (Short): $156.3 – $155.5 (on a confirmed breakdown below the intraday support, signaled by a bearish 4H candle close).
Target 1: $153.0 – $152.0 (initial support and the recent swing low).
Target 2: $150.0 – $148.0 (next major support zone and psychological level).
Stop Loss: $158.5 (above the recent swing high and key resistance).
My View
The weekly and yearly trends are decisively bearish. Counter-trend rallies in such environments are to be faded, not followed. The rejection at this level with increasing volume on the down move confirms strong selling pressure. The most probable path is a swift drop back towards the lower end of the range, eventually targeting a breakdown of the recent lows. This setup is for disciplined trend traders. Wait for the rejection to materialize—a 4H close below $156.00 would be a strong signal to enter the short.
