CAN BITCOIN FALL TO 66,000 USD? THE MARKET IS BETTING ON A WORSE SCENARIO
According to new data from Kalshi – the licensed prediction market platform in the U.S. – traders are pricing in a likelihood of $BTC that it could drop to 66,000 USD this year.
This is not an official forecast, but a price level reflecting the market's risk outlook: investors are willing to 'bet' on a deeper correction scenario.
Why is the 66,000 USD mark attracting attention?
First, the macro environment is still not truly stable. U.S.-EU trade tensions, U.S.-China relations, and the unpredictable policies of President Trump often lead to a 'risk-off' sentiment.
Second, global interest rates remain high, making speculative cash flows less sustainable. When liquidity is tightened, risk assets like crypto often come under pressure first.
Third, despite being called 'digital gold,' Bitcoin is still behaving like a risk asset, sensitive to macro fluctuations and cash flow.
However, it is essential to look at the opposite side: if BTC does indeed retreat to 66,000 USD, it could also become an attractive price range for long-term cash flows, especially from institutions.
Conclusion: 66,000 USD is not a 'death sentence' for Bitcoin, but rather a risk scenario that needs to be considered and managed, rather than reacting emotionally.