The price of Zcash has done something significant after weeks of weakness. Since January 19, the price of ZEC has risen by about 15%, climbing from the lowest crash point near $336 to around $362. This move came just a few days after confirming a breakdown pattern, which is exactly the kind that often traps aggressive sellers.
The structure still looks unstable on the surface. But underneath, accumulation has started to quietly increase. The focus is now shifting to one level. Zcash is about 9% below the key lie level, also putting a key EMA line in focus. Whether the price can reclaim this level may determine whether this bounce will remain a bounce or turn into something bigger, perhaps a rally.
The rebound brings the 100-day moving average index back into focus
The rebound did not happen suddenly.
After the direct collapse was triggered, the price of Zcash briefly dropped to around $336 before buyers intervened to activate the potential trap.
Since then, the price has risen by about 15%, stopping just below the 100-day exponential moving average. The pure consumption rate is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices.
The last time Zcash regained the 100-day EMA value, on December 3, the price rose by more than 70% in the following weeks. This date does not guarantee repetition, but it explains why this level is very important now.
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Meanwhile, sellers are still active near resistance. The ZEC index struggled to surpass $386, where this bounce halted, indicating that supply has not disappeared. This keeps the bearish structure technically intact. The question is whether buying under the box is strong enough to force a recovery anyway.
The answer starts with who has been buying since January 19.
Whales are accumulating as dip buying strength increases
The accumulation data shows where it usually matters.
Over the past seven days, giant whales (the top 100 addresses) have increased their stakes in ZEC by about 9%, bringing the balance to approximately 42,623 ZEC. This represents a net accumulation of around 3,500 ZEC during the rebound phase.
Traditional whale wallets followed. The stakes in this batch rose by about 5%, bringing the balances to approximately 10,182 ZEC. This equates to an additional 480 ZEC accumulated during the same period.
Whales collectively added about 4,000 ZEC since January 19. This is not buying at the peaks. It is accumulation after a confirmed collapse, anticipating price strength. However, smart money has completely left, indicating slightly bearish expectations in the near term.
Momentum indicators support this view. Between January 14 and January 24, the price of ZEC trended downward, but the money flow index rose, creating a bullish divergence.
MFI measures buying and selling pressure using both price and volume, which is a potential indicator for price declines. When the price drops while the average investment rises, it indicates low buying beneath the surface. This pattern often protects against potential downsides.
The positioning of derivatives adds another layer. After the recent transition, leverage has been reset and is now largely balanced. Over the next 30 days on Binance's permanent ZEC offerings, short liquidations slightly outpace buying at $26.37 million versus $22 million in long contracts.
This imbalance means that the price does not need a full trend reversal to rise. Even moderate pressure can start to enforce short covering.
All these points indicate the same thing. Accumulation is present.
Zcash price levels that confirm or eliminate the bear trap
The structure is now simple.
On the downside, the trap fails if ZEC loses between $335 and $336 in the daily close. Moving below this level keeps the bearish pattern active and reopens the path for deeper declines.
On the bullish side, the main test is near $386-$395 (the fib level 0.236), about 9% from current levels. This area corresponds with the 100-day EMA calculation. A daily close above it would reverse the December recovery and significantly weaken the bearish structure.
If this recovery happens, the next bullish area will be close to $463, where previous supply and liquidation clusters are located. Going beyond that would completely negate the right shoulder pattern of the head and shoulders. Above $557, the broader bearish thesis collapses.
Until one of these levels collapses, the price of Zcash remains in a tight decision zone.
The conclusion is clear. The ZEC index has already risen by 15%, while whales are accumulating in weakness, and low buying pressure is evident. The price is now still only 9% from the level that historically opened much larger moves.
