The Zcash price has made an important move after several weeks of weakness. Since January 19, the ZEC price has risen nearly 15%, from the low level of around $336 to about $362. This movement occurred just days after a confirmed bearish pattern was broken, just as it often catches aggressive sellers off guard.
The structure still looks challenging on the surface. But underneath, accumulation has gradually increased. The focus now shifts to one level. Zcash is about 9% below a key Fib level, which also puts a crucial EMA line in focus. If the price can regain this level, it may determine whether this rise is just a temporary lift or if it develops into something bigger, perhaps a rally.
The rise puts the 100-day EMA in focus.
The rise did not come out of the blue.
After the head-and-shoulders pattern was triggered, Zcash price briefly fell towards $336 before buyers came in to possibly activate the trap.
Since then, the price has risen about 15%, stopping just below the 100-day EMA (exponential moving average). An EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices.
The last time Zcash regained its 100-day EMA, on December 3, the price rose over 70% in the following weeks. While this does not guarantee a repeat, it explains why this level means so much now.
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At the same time, sellers are still active near resistance. ZEC has struggled to get above $386, where this rise stopped, indicating that supply is still present. This keeps the bearish structure technically alive. The question is whether the buying pressure beneath the surface is strong enough to push the price up regardless.
The answer starts with who has bought since January 19.
Whale wallets are accumulating while buying strength increases during price drops.
On-chain data shows accumulation exactly where it often matters most.
Over the last seven days, mega-whales (top 100 addresses) have increased their ZEC holdings by about 9%, and now have approximately 42,623 ZEC. This corresponds to a net accumulation of nearly 3,500 ZEC during the rising phase.
Standard whale wallets have followed suit. Holdings in this group rose by about 5%, up to around 10,182 ZEC. This means an additional 480 ZEC accumulated over the same period.
Overall, whales have added about 4,000 ZEC since January 19. This is not buying at peak levels. It is accumulation after a confirmed price drop, with expectations of strength in the price. Smart money, on the other hand, has completely pulled out, suggesting little expectation of significant rises in the short term.
Momentum indicators support this view. Between January 14 and January 24, ZEC's price moved down while the Money Flow Index simultaneously rose, which created a bullish divergence.
MFI measures buying and selling pressure using both price and volume, and can indicate a bottom formation. When the price falls while MFI rises, it indicates a bottom formation beneath the surface. This pattern often protects against further downside.
Derivatives provide an extra layer. After the recent movement, the gearing has reset and become more balanced. Over the next 30 days on Binance ZEC perpetuals, short liquidations still slightly dominate over long positions with $26.37 million against $22 million in longs.
This imbalance means that the price does not need a full trend reversal to rise. Even a moderate lift can force short traders to cover their positions.
All these points point to the same thing. Accumulation is present.
Zcash price levels that confirm or deny the bear trap.
The structure is now simple.
On the downside, the trap fails if ZEC loses $335–$336 at the daily close. A drop back below this level keeps the bearish pattern active and opens the door for further downside.
On the upside, the main test lies near $386–$395 (0.236 Fib level), about 9% above current levels. This area coincides with the 100-day EMA. A daily close above this level would mirror the December rise and significantly weaken the bearish structure.
If this rise occurs, the next resistance area is around $463, where there has previously been supply and liquidation clusters. A move past this would completely invalidate the right shoulder in the head-and-shoulders pattern. Above $557, the broader bearish thesis breaks down.
Until one of these levels is broken, Zcash price is in a narrow decision zone.
The conclusion is simple. ZEC has already had a rise of 15%, whale wallets are accumulating under weakness, and there is visible buying pressure on the dips. The price is now only 9% from the level that historically has released much larger movements.
