The price of Bitcoin has hardly moved in the last 24 hours. BTC is trading steadily around $89,500, although weekly losses remain close to 6%. At first glance, it seems like a calm consolidation. But the charts show otherwise.
Now, several technical and on-chain signals point to a confrontation. Buyers are trying to avoid a larger drop, not to start a new rally. The risk is silently increasing, and a less known adversary is starting to become important.
Doji candles and the loss of EMA reflect the behavior of Bitcoin buyers
In the last three daily sessions, Bitcoin has shown doji candles, with thin bodies and long wicks. These candles show doubt, not balance. Sellers press down, buyers enter late, and neither gains control.
This behavior appears right at the lower limit of an ascending wedge. An ascending wedge rises, but the price movement becomes tighter, and it often breaks down when support fails.
If this structure fails, the bearish projection points towards 77,300 dollars, a potential drop of 13% from current levels.
Technical risk increases when moving averages are added. Bitcoin lost its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on January 20th. An EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices, making it sensitive to rapid changes.
The last time Bitcoin clearly dropped below the 20-day EMA, on December 12th, the price corrected nearly 8%. This time, BTC has already fallen about 5% since the breakout before stabilizing. Doji candles suggest that buyers are slowing the decline, not reversing it.
In summary, this is not indecision between bulls and bears. It's buyers trying to delay a larger downward movement.
Who keeps buying and why is that support becoming weaker?
Long-term holders continue to buy, but the pace is slowing down
On-chain data shows that long-term holders, those wallets that hold Bitcoin for 155 days or more, continue to be net buyers. This group is tracked by the metric 'Holder Net Position Change', which measures how many coins long-term investors add or remove.
In the last two weeks, this metric has remained positive. That buying helps explain why Bitcoin hasn't dropped yet. But the strength is weakening.
On January 19th, long-term holders added nearly 22,618 BTC. By January 23rd, that daily volume dropped to about 17,109 BTC. That's a decrease of about 24% in buying intensity in just four days.
So, while holders continue to support the price, they do so with less strength. This coincides with the doji candles observed on the chart. There is support, but it is diminishing.
This slowdown would not be dangerous by itself. The problem is that at the same time, a new source of pressure appears.
Miners emerge as the lesser-known adversary behind the increased risk
The least appreciated change at this moment comes from Bitcoin miners. The metric 'Miner Net Position Change' tracks the 30-day change in supply in miners' wallets. When the value becomes more negative, it means miners are selling more Bitcoin over time.
On January 9th, miners were reducing their holdings by about 335 BTC. By January 23rd, that number rose to nearly 2,826 BTC. This means that selling pressure increased more than 8x in just two weeks.
The reason is better understood when network fees are considered. Bitcoin's monthly network fees have dropped drastically, according to BeInCrypto analysts. In May 2025, miners earned approximately 194 BTC in monthly fees.
By January 2026, that figure had gradually decreased to about 59 BTC. This means a decrease of approximately 70% in commission revenue.
Lower fees reduce miners' profit margins. When revenues decline, miners are more likely to sell Bitcoin to cover their operating costs, and this seems to be happening. But their selling strength is not very strong yet.
At the same time, whale behavior is starting to smooth out. The number of whale addresses steadily increased from January 9th to January 22nd, and then began to stabilize and decrease slightly.
This suggests early distribution, not aggressive selling, but adds pressure to what miners are creating.
Now the market depends on price levels.
BTC price levels decide if the stagnation breaks
With the current price near 89,500 dollars, Bitcoin needs to close the day above 91,000 dollars, a movement of approximately 1.79%, to recover the 20-day EMA. That would reduce immediate bearish pressure and signal that buyers are regaining control.
The risk is closer. If Bitcoin closes the day below 88,500 dollars, nearly 1% less, it would again be below the support of the rising wedge. If this happens, bearish targets may arrive quickly.
Key Bitcoin price levels to watch include first 84,300 dollars and then the wedge projection near 77,300 dollars. If long-term holders' purchases continue to decrease while miners keep selling, these levels will become increasingly important.#GrayscaleBNBETFFiling #USIranMarketImpact #TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat #CPIWatch $BTC
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