AU

$XAU Many people feel that gold and silver have already reached historical highs, and there is limited space for further increases, even worrying about potential pullbacks at any time. However, I am even more confident about the precious metals market in 2026. The core logic is not emotional speculation but rather the resonance of macroeconomic factors, supply and demand, and safe-haven forces. High positions are just the starting point, not the endpoint.

First, let's look at gold. Its core drivers have never been short-term speculation but rather the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, global de-dollarization, and central banks' continuous gold purchases, creating a triple certainty. The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026 has already solidified, with a very high probability of the first rate cut in March. The weakening of the dollar and the decline in real interest rates are certainties, and the opportunity cost of holding gold has significantly decreased. Funds will only continue to flow into ETFs and futures, with positions reaching a two-year high being just the beginning. More critically, the global central bank gold purchasing spree has never ceased, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for 14 consecutive months, and countries like Russia and India also accelerating their gold accumulation. This long-term buying directly supports gold prices. The demand for safe-haven assets driven by geopolitical conflicts and high U.S. debt levels has made gold the 'ultimate safe haven' for funds. Even with short-term fluctuations, the logic of a trend upward has fundamentally not broken.