The researcher's price has entered a phase of decline. After experiencing a sharp increase of 200% following the launch earlier this week, the SKR index has now dropped by about 25% over the past twenty-four hours. This shift becomes more significant as the buyers driving the transition change.
In our previous analysis, we showed how smart money absorbs the sell-off across the board and helped stabilize the price. This arrangement is no longer sound. Smart money has begun to reduce exposure, exchange balances are rising, yet the whales are quietly adding. The result is a market being pulled in two opposing directions, with a focus on a 5% slope.
The critical collapse caused an exit from smart money.
The first crack appeared on January 24.
On a one-hour chart, the price of SKR has lost the volume-weighted average price (VWAP). VWAP represents the average price paid by traders, weighted by volume.
When the price stays above the average price, buyers are in control. When it breaks down, it often indicates distribution rather than healthy consolidation.
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This analysis was close to smart money behavior.
Over the past twenty-four hours, smart money wallets have reduced their holdings of SKR by 56.48%. Based on on-chain data, this group has cut about 8.5 million Swedish Krona from its positions in a single day. This was not a slow trimming. It was a decisive exit after losing the short-term structure.
This is important because smart money tends to move first. When it retreats after VWAP loss, it usually indicates that the near-term rise no longer offers a positive risk reward.
This explains why SKR's rebound attempts have been weak, even with price stabilization attempts. However, smart money selling is just one side of the equation.
Whales are buying the dip as a signal of divergence for accumulation.
While informed traders were leaving, whales moved in the opposite direction.
From January 23 to January 24, the price of SKR continued to trend down, but the Money Flow Index (MFI) rose during the same period. The MFI tracks buying and selling pressure using price and volume together. When the price drops while the average financing rises, it indicates accumulation beneath the surface.
This divergence helps explain whale behavior.
Over the past twenty-four hours, whale holdings have increased by 40.78%, raising the total balance to 56.49 million Swedish Krona. This means that whales added about 16.3 million Swedish Krona during the pullback.
Unlike smart money, whales do not trade with a short-term structure. They are positioned in a weak stance, which aligns perfectly with institutional low box buying.
This creates a clear divergence in intent. Smart money stepped back after VWAP failure. Whales intervened with declining momentum and the emergence of low buy signals.
However, whale accumulation does not automatically translate to price strength. Whales can absorb supply, but they cannot stop the decline if selling pressure continues to rise elsewhere. This highlights exchange behavior.
Exchange flows keep the risk of SKR price collapse alive.
Despite whale buying, selling pressure remains high.
Exchange balances surged sharply over the past twenty-four hours, rising by 10.94% to reach 453.67 million Swedish Krona. This means that about 44.8 million Swedish Krona flowed into exchanges during this period. Exiting smart money contributed to this flow, and it is likely that retail profits increased the pressure.
This shift in supply is clearly shown in the volume data.
On the four-hour chart, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) trended down even as the price remained high between January 21 and January 24. OBV tracks whether volume confirms price movements. When the price remains high, but the price of broad values falls, it indicates that the rises are driven by dwindling demand rather than strong accumulation.
This is why whale buying has not yet translated into positive follow-through. In particular, the surge in exchange flows easily outstrips their accumulation numbers.
The technical risk has clearly defined itself. At a four-hour close, $0.028 is the key level, which is a 5% increase from the current level at the time of publication. A clean close below it, coupled with a break of the trendline in OBV, would indicate that selling pressure is overcoming accumulation, opening up downside risks toward $0.0120.
On the positive side, SKR needs to recover $0.043 to regain confidence. Aside from that, $0.053 remains the most important resistance area, where the previous supply was concentrated. Without a change in volume behavior, these levels remain difficult to reach.
The structure tells a simple story. Smart money has stepped back. Whales are accumulating. Markets are filling up quickly. As long as this imbalance continues, the price of SKR remains vulnerable.
