Interesting data..
The $6.18 Billion "Capitulation" Signal 📉🛑
If you are feeling like giving up today, you’re not alone. In fact, the on-chain data shows that almost everyone else already has.
We are currently witnessing a massive structural "reset" in Bitcoin. Here is the data that proves the selling pressure is reaching a breaking point:
1. The $6 Billion Realized Loss 💸
For the first time since the 2023 recovery, Bitcoin holders have flipped into a Net Realized Loss phase. Since December, investors have officially locked in over $6.18 Billion in losses (roughly 69,000 BTC).
When people sell at this scale, it’s not "trading"—it’s capitulation.
2. The "Worst Since 2022" Metric 📊
The STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio) has plummeted to 0.98. This is a technical way of saying that everyone who bought in the last 5 months is panic-selling at a loss.
The 2022 Connection: We haven't seen this specific pattern of "loss-heavy" blocks since the March 2022 bear market transition and the FTX collapse.
3. Why This Might Be the "Bottom" 💎
Historically, when the "Bitcoin tourists" give up and the 30-day realized loss metric goes deep into the red, it marks the Seller Exhaustion Point.
We saw this exact setup before the major recoveries in 2022 and late 2023. It doesn’t mean we pump today, but it means the "forced selling" is almost over. Once the sellers are gone, even a small amount of buying pressure can send us back toward $100k. 🚀
The Strategy:
Wait for the STH-SOPR to cross back above 1.0. That is your signal that the "emotional selling" has ended and the smart money has taken control.