In theory, bitcoin is expected to benefit during periods of instability due to its characteristics as a scarce and hard-to-censor form of currency. However, in practice, this is the asset that investors sell first as pressures mount.

In the past week, as geopolitical tensions escalated following President Donald Trump's statements about the potential imposition of tariffs on NATO allies related to Greenland, along with speculation about military action in the Arctic region, financial markets collectively adjusted and volatility increased.

Since January 18 — when Trump first threatened to impose tariffs in an effort to push the Greenland issue — bitcoin has lost 6.6% of its value, while gold has increased by 8.6% and is approaching new peak levels around $5,000.

The reason lies in the role of each asset in the investment portfolio during market stress. Bitcoin trades 24/7, has high liquidity, and instant convertibility, making it the easiest choice to sell when investors need to quickly raise cash.

Conversely, gold, although less flexible in trading, is often held rather than sold. This makes bitcoin operate like an 'ATM' during panic phases, undermining the image of 'digital gold,' according to Greg Cipolaro, Global Research Director at NYDIG.

‘In times of stress and uncertainty, the demand for liquidity takes precedence, and this dynamic disadvantages bitcoin more than gold,’ Cipolaro remarked.

He added that although bitcoin has good liquidity relative to its scale, it is still more volatile and is often sold reflexively when leveraged positions are unwound. Therefore, in a risk-averse environment, bitcoin is often used to increase cash, reduce portfolio risk, and lower VAR scores, despite the long-term narrative. Meanwhile, gold continues to play the role of a real liquidity 'sponge.'

Large investors are also not supporting bitcoin at this time.

Central banks worldwide are buying gold at a record pace, creating a solid structural demand. In contrast, according to a report by NYDIG, long-term bitcoin holders are selling.

On-chain data shows that 'long-term' coins continue to be transferred to exchanges, indicating a steady supply of sales. This hanging supply weakens price support. ‘The opposite is happening with gold. Large holding institutions, especially central banks, continue to accumulate the precious metal,’ Cipolaro said.

The discrepancy also arises from how the market prices risk. Current volatility is seen as temporary, stemming from tariffs, policy threats, and short-term shocks. Gold has long served as a hedge against this type of instability.

Conversely, bitcoin is more suitable for long-term risks such as the depreciation of fiat currency or public debt crises.

‘Gold performs well in times of immediate loss of confidence, war risks, and currency depreciation but has not led to systemic collapse,’ Cipolaro said.

‘Meanwhile, bitcoin is more suitable for hedging against long-term currency and geopolitical disturbances, as well as the erosion of confidence occurring over many years rather than a few weeks. As long as the market believes that current risks are dangerous but not fundamental, gold will remain the preferred hedging tool.’

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