After several weeks of sluggish trading, Zcash (ZEC) has just recorded a significant development. Since January 19, ZEC has increased nearly 15%, recovering from the bottom of $336 to around $362. Notably, this increase occurred just days after the bearish model was confirmed, which is often a time that traps short sellers.
On the surface, the price structure still harbors many risks. However, underneath, accumulation activity is quietly occurring strongly. Currently, the market's focus is on an important price threshold: Zcash is about 9% away from a key Fibonacci level, while also approaching the 100-day EMA. Whether the price can surpass this area will determine if this recovery is merely a technical bounce or the beginning of a real bullish trend.
100-day EMA: The challenge area for the recovery trend
Zcash's recovery is not coincidental. After the head-and-shoulders pattern was broken, the price quickly fell to $336 before buying pressure emerged, creating the potential for a 'bear trap' for sellers.
Since then, ZEC's price has increased by about 15%, stopping just below the 100-day EMA – an important trend indicator reflecting recent price strength. History has shown the influence of the 100-day EMA: the last time Zcash regained this level (on December 3), the price rose over 70% in the following weeks. While there's no guarantee history will repeat itself, it is clear this is a price area that the market is particularly interested in.
Setting a Zcash trap | Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, selling pressure has not disappeared – ZEC continues to face difficulties approaching the $386 area, indicating that supply remains strong. The bearish technical structure still exists, and the question is whether the current buying pressure is enough to break this barrier.
Who is buying when the price decreases? Whales are accumulating strongly
On-chain data shows significant accumulation from 'large whales' – the 100 addresses holding the most ZEC have increased their holdings by 9% over the past week, raising the total balance to 42,623 ZEC, equivalent to a net purchase of nearly 3,500 ZEC during the recovery.
Accumulation of ZEC continues | Source: Nansen
The usual whale group is also participating, increasing their holdings by 5% (10,182 ZEC), or about 480 ZEC. In total, whales have purchased about 4,000 ZEC since January 19. This is an accumulation move after the bearish model was confirmed, reflecting expectations for a price recovery. However, smart money is withdrawing from the market, indicating that most large investors remain cautious about the potential for strong short-term growth.
Momentum indicators also reinforce this view: from January 14 to 24, ZEC's price decreased but the Money Flow Index (MFI) rose, creating a bullish divergence – a sign that buying pressure at the bottom is emerging, helping to limit the risk of a deeper decline.
Buying activity is strong | Source: TradingView
Regarding the derivatives market, after the recent fluctuations, the leverage ratio has been balanced again. On Binance's ZEC perpetual contract, the liquidation value of short positions ($26.37 million) is still higher than the long positions ($22 million), indicating that even a modest increase could trigger the closing of short positions, pushing the price up further.
Short orders still outnumber long orders | Coinglass
Overall, the data indicate that the accumulation process is clearly underway.
Important price areas: Opportunities and risks for the next trend
The current price structure is quite clear:
On the downside, if ZEC closes below the $335-$336 area, the bullish trap will fail, and the bearish model will continue to take effect, opening the risk for a deeper decline.
On the upside, the challenge area is at $386-$395 (Fibonacci level 0.236), about 9% away from the current price, coinciding with the 100-day EMA. If ZEC breaks through and closes above this area, the bearish structure will be significantly weakened, similar to the strong recovery in December.
If it surpasses this resistance area, the next target is $463 – where there was significant supply and liquidation clusters, and beyond that is $557, where the long-term bearish thesis will officially be invalidated.
Until one of the above price areas is broken, Zcash remains in the market's narrow 'decision zone'.
Conclusion: ZEC has recovered 15%, whales are accumulating during the weak phase, and buying pressure at the bottom has become apparent. Currently, the price is only about 9% away from a historically significant bullish trend.
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