Day 3 of Newbie Market Observation: Weak Fluctuations Continue, Hold the Bottom Line and Stay Calm

The current cryptocurrency market continues to maintain a weak fluctuation pattern, with BTC oscillating around $89000, a slight drop of 0.86% in 24H, hitting a low of $88856.8, and significant pressure at the $90000 level above; ETH is also weakening, down 0.16% to $2956.53 in 24H, consistently hovering in the $2920-2990 range, with overall market volume sluggish and no clear breakout direction at present.

Key Influencing Factors

Capital Flow: The inflow of BTC spot ETF funds has significantly slowed, while ETH ETF has seen net outflows. The decline in stablecoin market value, combined with the redemption pressure from Grayscale's GBTC, means that mainstream coins have not fully released selling pressure, and capital allocation willingness towards cryptocurrency assets remains cautious.

Market Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index has retreated to a neutral range. Although there has been some release of panic selling in the previous period, investor sentiment remains observational, with a stalemate in the long-short battle. Short-term funds are only engaging in small-range trading, lacking trend-driven capital entering the market.

Macroeconomic Environment: There is uncertainty in macro events such as the U.S. Treasury's quarterly refinancing announcement, and global risk appetite is low. This, coupled with the influence of U.S. stock market movements, further suppresses the rebound momentum in the cryptocurrency market.

Neutral View on Mainstream Coins/Segments

BTC is still bound in the $88500-90000 range in the short term, with the lower support tested multiple times but not effectively broken, while the upper pressure remains difficult to breach. Without volume support, it is hard to have a trending market; ETH is completely linked to BTC's movements, with $2900 as a key short-term support, lacking independent positive drivers, making it difficult to emerge from a one-sided market. Most mainstream coins follow the broader market's weakness, while a few niche coins show brief fluctuations, but capital rotation is extremely fast, making it easy for newbies to get stuck.

Newbie Actionable Suggestions

Position Management: Continue to maintain a light position, with mainstream coin positions not exceeding 50%, and hold remaining funds in stablecoins, resolutely avoiding leverage and contracts, and not blindly bottom-fishing.

Operational Strategy: Abandon small fluctuations within the range, continue to pause or reduce dollar-cost averaging, do not chase small rebounds, and do not panic sell due to slight declines; patiently wait for effective breakout signals from the range.

Stop Loss and Take Profit: Newbies holding positions should set the BTC stop-loss at $88500 and the ETH at $2900. Once the support level is effectively broken, exit decisively; if the level is not broken, maintain a wait-and-see approach without any operations.

Information Source: Focus solely on official announcements from exchanges, Glassnode, and other authoritative data platforms.