$LUNA Dear friends at Binance Square, LUNA has shown a fluctuating trend after the judgment of Do Kwon, some see a speculative opportunity while others are wary of potential risks. Today we will analyze from three perspectives, whether you are an aggressive trader or a conservative investor, you will find a reference!
📊 [Neutral Analysis: Core logic of the current market]
First look at price and technicals
Current Price: 0.0803 USDC, 24h increase of 1.77%
Key Range: 0.077-0.083 USDC fluctuates, trading volume is low
Support/Resistance: 0.07 USDC (short-term support), 0.085 USDC (short-term resistance)
Technical Judgment: After peaking at 0.0988 in early January and then pulling back, the rebound at 0.0714 is a technical correction of an oversold condition, temporarily balancing longs and shorts
Core event impact.
The judicial events related to Do Kwon are central to the fluctuations of LUNA, with the complete timeline as follows:
1. August 12, 2025: Do Kwon pleads guilty in court to the core charges of conspiracy fraud and telecommunications fraud, claiming his actions stemmed from 'arrogance and despair,' and apologizes for misleading investors.
2. December 11, 2025: The Southern District Court of New York officially sentences Do Kwon to 15 years in prison, a sentence longer than the 12 years previously suggested by the prosecution.
3. Market reaction on the day of the ruling: LUNA experienced a short-term violent surge, rising over 125% to a high of 0.25 USDC, then quickly falling back, typical of retail speculative trading.
This event falls under 'bad news realization' but not 'bad news fully released': short-term alleviation of uncertainty, with selling pressure temporarily exhausted; long-term exacerbation of the trust crisis, the Terra ecosystem recovery lacks core driving force, and the historical burden of a $40 billion collapse still restricts institutional capital entry.
Neutral view.
No clear trend signals in the short term; volatility remains the main tone. A breakout above 0.085 needs to be confirmed with increased volume, while falling below 0.07 may trigger a new round of declines, suitable for waiting for clear signals before acting.
⚡ [Aggressive speculation: Hunter-level entry opportunity] (commonly known as speculators) 😎
Core Logic: Bad news fully released + rebound after excessive decline.
The 15-year prison sentence for Do Kwon has removed the judicial uncertainty hanging over LUNA. The logic that 'bad news becomes good news once it is realized' in the crypto space comes into effect. Coupled with a deep decline from the high of 0.25 USDC on the day of the ruling to 0.0714 USDC, the short-term gaming space for capital is significantly evident, and the current stabilization at low volume is a signal of exhausted selling pressure.
Practical strategy recommendations.
Entry point: 0.078-0.08 USDC for gradual accumulation.
Stop-loss position: Unconditionally exit if it falls below 0.07 USDC.
Target price: First target 0.085 USDC, watch for a breakout above 0.095 USDC.
Operational principle: Participate with light positions, enter and exit quickly, do not get attached, do not chase highs, purely emotional trading, rely on short-term support and resistance for swings.
Target Audience
Investors with high risk tolerance who can withstand significant fluctuations in capital, are familiar with short-term trading rules, and can quickly execute stop-loss orders.
Fatal flaws cannot be ignored.
1. The fundamentals have completely collapsed: the core founder has been sentenced to heavy prison time, Terraform Labs has long applied for bankruptcy protection, the ecosystem has lost its soul figure, and there are no substantive recovery actions, leading to a complete lack of long-term value support.
2. Trust crisis unresolved: The historical stain of a $40 billion collapse has completely driven institutions and conservative funds away; the surge on the day of the ruling was only a retail speculation without significant new capital entering.
3. Regulatory and subsequent risks: Do Kwon may be transferred to South Korea for continued trial after serving at least half of his sentence, and further judicial news may still cause market fluctuations; regulations on such high-risk coins have not been relaxed.
4. The technical aspect is extremely weak: the current trading volume remains low, indicating weak buying power in the market, and the short-term support level of 0.07 USDC may be breached at any time, with the shadow of the historical low of 0.0001 USDC still looming.
Conservative investors' response strategy.
Decisively observe: Do not catch the bottom or chase rebounds, avoid stepping into speculative traps with no valuable support.
Stay away from speculation: LUNA has no long-term investment value; any rebound is an opportunity for previous trapped positions to exit.
Protect your capital: For high-risk coins with heavy historical burdens and completely failed fundamentals, 'not participating' is the best strategy.
❗ Serious Reminder
Investing in crypto is not gambling; lucky psychology will ultimately pay the price. The risks of LUNA have not yet been fully released, and short-term speculation does not change the long-term downward trend. Protecting capital is more important than pursuing short-term uncertain returns.
🔖 Summary
In a volatile market, opportunities coexist with risks, primarily depending on one's risk tolerance.
Aggressive investors: Strictly control positions + stop-loss, rely on short-term support and resistance for short-term trading, take profits when possible.
Conservative investors: Maintain observation, stay away from such high-risk assets without fundamental support.
- General Principle: No matter what kind of operation, proper risk management is the top priority!
